Genocide meets a probability

When should a country be concerned about the possibility of genocide happening? Certain political figures polarise countries causing militant  factions to form. Should a country fear the chanting of rebel minority groups? Is it not possible for that minority group to grow over time and exert an incredible amount of influence on the rest of the country?

The organisation Genocide Watch (genocidewatch.com ) monitors countries that are at risk of possible genocide. They list certain charachteristics leading up to genocide.

Given the criteria by Genocide Watch, which is by no means exhaustive, is it possible to calculate a probability of genocide. I will use South Africa as a case study. The country over the last few years has been tremendously polarised by political fractions. Within the ruling party alone certain events can be described as worrisome: The previous president, Thabo Mbeki, has been ousted by Jacob Zuma who later became president. He enjoyed strong support from the ANC Youth League who have a militant history. The previous ANCYL leader chanted songs that incited many black people against white Afrikaners. The title of the song "Shoot the boer" is self explanatory. More recently, the aggressive strikes at Lomnin's Marikana mine, which culminated in over 34 deaths, were echoed as a consequence of former British colonial rule and the state being unable to be held accountable for its actions http://www.politicsweb.co.za/politicsweb/view/politicsweb/en/page71619?oid=325233&sn=Marketingweb+detail . Poor service delivery, such as the long overdue provision of textbooks to Limpopo schools, was blamed on previous Apartheid president Hendrik Verwoerd (who has been dead for 46 years) http://www.sowetanlive.co.za/columnists/2012/08/01/how-to-find-textbook-culprits. But these cases might just be outliers on a general trend. But these outliers might just quicken the inevitable path towards genocide. Once we analyse the general trend we might be able to get a clearer picture of whether South Africa is heading towards genocide.

South Africa has large levels of inequality. Most of its capital is owned by the white minority. The ANC has made various promises that have not yet been fulfilled. This includes proper housing for all, employment for all and a better life in general. Unions mobilise labour when their demands are not met and as a consequence hold the country to ransom. South African farm murder rates are amongst the highest in the world (according to http://majorityrights.com/weblog/comments//the_boer_genocide) and overall crime rates are disproportionately high compared to emerging market peers. The judicial system is constantly under threat while we have also witnessed the sacking of two police chiefs. Corruption is rife while ignorance continues to bind the country. Service delivery protests are increasing as the municipality buildings are burned to the ground and government employees' lives are threatened. The escape clause the ANC uses is to blame the Apartheid era government, which was abolished eighteen years ago, for everything. The country is in a crisis and its people are very angry. This anger is a brewing pot waiting to be directed, and currently that finger is pointing to white people.

So what are the chances that genocide will occur in South Africa? Below I table the eight criteria mentioned in Genocide Watch. In Table 2 I make subjective ticks to those that apply. The right hand column mentions preventive measures, such as the judicial system, is able to punish hate crime and stop possible polarisations. I weight this with the historical record of genocide where occurrences of genocide were sourced from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocides_in_history.    

Table 1: Eight stages of genocide and their preventative measures

Stages of genocide	Characteristics	Preventative measures
1.) Classification	People are divided into "us and them".	"The main preventive measure at this early stage is to develop universalistic institutions that transcend... divisions."
2.) Symbolisation	"When combined with hatred, symbols may be forced upon unwilling members of pariah groups..."	"To combat symbolization, hate symbols can be legally forbidden as can hate speech".
3.) Dehumanisation	"One group denies the humanity of the other group. Members of it are equated with animals, vermin, insects, or diseases."	"Local and international leaders should condemn the use of hate speech and make it culturally unacceptable. Leaders who incite genocide should be banned from international travel and have their foreign finances frozen."
4.) Organisation	"Genocide is always organized... Special army units or militias are often trained and armed..."	"The U.N. should impose arms embargoes on governments and citizens of countries involved in genocidal massacres, and create commissions to investigate violations"
5.) Polarisation	"Hate groups broadcast polarizing propaganda..."	"Prevention may mean security protection for moderate leaders or assistance to human rights groups...Coups d’état by extremists should be opposed by international sanctions."
6.) Preparation	"Victims are identified and separated out because of their ethnic or religious identity..."	"At this stage, a Genocide Emergency must be declared. ..."
7.) Extermination	"It is 'extermination' to the killers because they do not believe their victims to be fully human".	"At this stage, only rapid and overwhelming armed intervention can stop genocide. Real safe areas or refugee escape corridors should be established with heavily armed international protection."
8.) Denial	"The perpetrators... deny that they committed any crimes..."	"The response to denial is punishment by an international tribunal or national courts"

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide

Below I also briefly describe the reasons why there are no or little preventative measures. Table 2: Eight stages and preventative measures in South Africa

Stages: Yes=1; No=0	Preventative measures: Yes=0; No=1
1.) 1	1: BEE, land reform, Manyi and Malema
2.) 1	1: Even though hate speech is against the constitution the ANC seems to make excuses for songs like "Shoot the boer"
3.) 0	0
4.) 0	0
5.) 1	1: Malema and other racist cronies still walk free
6.) 0	0
7.) 0	0
8.) 0	0

In calculating the probability of genocide in South Africa I will leave out characteristics 7 and 8 since they already include the murder of people. I sum up the first column and the first six rows. This gives  a 6/12 probability of genocide occurring in South Africa. However, this is not necessarily supported by the data. This probability will be my prior subjective probability which will be weighed by the data. As mentioned before, I take the number of countries which had a genocide incident since 1951. I add China, Turkey and Ukraine to that list. In total, 26 countries had an incident where genocide occurred. The data then says that since 1951 the probability of genocide is 0.133.

The probability of genocide given a lack of preventative measures= P(Genocide/Lack of preventions)=P(lack of preventions/genocide)*P(genocide)/P(lack of intervention).

·         P(lack of preventions/genocide)=0.5 ; assuming that when genocide took place intervention failed

·         P(genocide)=0.133; % of countries who had an incidence of genocide since 1951

·         P(lack of intervention)=P(Lack of intervention/No Genocide)*P(no genocide)+ P(lack of preventions/genocide)* P(genocide)=0.5*(1-0.133)+0.5*0.133

The P(Lack of intervention/No Genocide) was assumed to be 0.5 taken from Table 2.

Using Bayes rule, this gives a probability of 0.098 or a 9.8% chance of genocide occurring in South Africa.

A few points to consider when analysing this probability: It is subject to my own opinion which is informed by limited resources. If I were to take all the countries listed on the wiki site I would have 50/196=0.255 of countries in the world with an incidence of genocide.If  I assumed further that there were no preventative measures when genocide eventually occurred (prob=1) and that P(Lack of intervention/No Genocide)=0.2, the probability of genocide in South Africa would be 0.63 or 63%.

It is also important to note that we live in a dynamic world where constitutional laws get amended and society pressures dissipate or increase given new feeds of information. Thus, to exactly pin down any probability would lead to  fallacy. The probability in itself could also change the path of the future. As an example the government would see this probability and act positively to stop such an event. Thus, this probability would decrease. For a true probability measure you would have to have access to a full set of information from the past but also the future and you should strip out the effects of government intervention with knowledge of the probability.

In fact, such a crude calculation of a probability should serve one purpose only (you should remember the theme of this blog now) to change people's attitudes for the better. Hatred does not solve the problems we face today. The problems we face today might be as a result of the past, but this result loses value the further we go back into time to explain the present. We need to come up with innovative solutions that fit the issues we face today. For South Africa it might mean a change of leadership (either presidential candidates or ruling parties), it might mean a change in social dialogue (nothing is really achieved by changing street and provincial names to names that very few people know of), if might mean scrapping regressive policies such as BEE which is fraught with fraud and corruption. It is time that elected leaders be held accountable for their deeds or rather their misdeeds.