Is there anything new about South Africa's latest crime stats?

In September 2014 the South African Police Service released its latest crime statistics. In this post we will see whether crime rates have dropped and what provinces remain high crime zones.

I believe that crime breaks communities and unity if left unopposed. The recent South African crime statistics do not deliver any good news. Before looking at some of the numbers, we might try and understand what factors lead to crime. It is also important to distinguish between the types of crimes committed. South Africa seems to be plagued by violent crimes.

Here is what the literature says about the determinants of crime (some might seem intuitive):

·         Poverty causes crime, but also, crime can cause poverty (Anderson, xxx). For South Africa the impact of poverty is not that large, but still statistically significant. Anderson (xxx) finds that a R1000 increase in monthly expenditure increases the probability of a robbery by about 7%,

·         Robberies are higher in wealthier areas. For South Africa this can be up to 25% higher in wealthy areas compared to their not so wealthy neighbours (Demombynes and Ozler, 2005).

·         Crimes in South Africa could be a lot higher than reported (Newham, 2002). I don't think it is too much of a stretch to assume that a large number of crimes go unreported. Police corruption, misplacement of documents or the fear of a victim might explain some of this under-reporting.

·         In some cases it is believed that unemployment causes crime.

·         Cultural deviance or cultural conflict can also explain crime (Eide, 1999).

·         The probability of being caught and the type of punishment are also determinants of crime. Criminals weigh the costs and benefits of committing a crime and then act on those calculations. This assumes that many criminals behave rationally and that crime is not always sporadic but often well planned. Other factors that criminals might take account of in committing a crime include tastes (perhaps the criminals are bloodthirsty, perhaps they have an affinity for stealing only small items such as jewels), ability (this includes intellectual and physical) and punishment (the severity of punishment if caught) (see Eide, 1994).

·         The Law commission in 1997 and 1998 tracked over 15,000 and found that only 6% of serious violent crime tracked followed a conviction over this period.

·         Age is an important variable. In a country like South Africa where a large proportion of the youth are unemployed and uneducated one ought to expect high crime rates.

·         Blackmore (2003) show that a higher income per capita, drug related use, urbanisation and the unemployment rate are all important factors that determine crime in South Africa. I am not necessarily a fan of using per capita income as this could be correlated simply with inequality increases.

Some stats

To make the comparison easy across provinces I indexed the various crimes so that crime per 100000 people in 2005 equals 100. This allows us to compare crime rates in 2014 relative to 2005. Obviously we would want all related crime to be below 100 - i.e. this represents a drop in crime.

As an example the map plot illustrates sexual offences in three periods. In 2005 all the provinces have the same colour (remember that we indexed 2005=100). We can then compare 2009 and 2014 (these are fiscal years, i.e. 2014=2013/14). If a province has a darker colour then it implies that it has less crime compared to the other provinces. It is also important to read the colours from the scale provided. For sexual offences the Western Cape had the lowest crime rate while the Eastern Cape and Limpopo had the highest in 2014

When we look at murder rates we see that Gauteng, Mpumalanga and KZN improved the most. 

The Northern Cape improved the most in terms of reducing aggravated robbery in 2014.

Finally I wonder whether overall crime has dropped significantly. The figures show marginal improvements for some provinces, but also a worsening of crime in other provinces. The national figure hardly shows any improvement.

It would be interesting to do a counter-factual analysis of what crime would have been without the security precautions that some households have (armed response, dogs, electric fencing, etc.) vs. a counter-factual of what crime would have been like when holding police service employment constant at 2005 levels. This would also help us make more informed decisions whether employing more police officials and raising their salaries would make a dent in crime.

Finally, do you feel safer? This mental conflict causes psychological problems and an irrational fear. This is one of the sad side-effects of a country with high crime rates. 

UPDATE 24 October 2014:
I recently saw that StatsSA publishes a survey on crime perceptions. This survey shows that there is indeed under-reporting. People also do not feel safe (no surprises there). Thought this was interesting though. 

References

Anderson, M.D. (). The effect of poverty on crime in South Africa: A GMM and IV approach.

Blackmore, F.L.E. (2003). A panel data analysis of crime in South Africa. South African Journal of Economic Management Science, 6(2003): 439-458.

Demombynes, G and Ozler, B. (2005). Crime and local inequality in South Africa. Journal of development economics, 76: 265-92.

Eide, E. (1994). Economics of crime. Stavanger, Rogaland Mediesenter, 158 p.

Eide, E. (1999). Economics of criminal behaviour.

Newham, G. (2002). Tackling police corruption in South Africa. Centre for the study of violence and reconciliation.

South African Law Commission, Conviction rates and other outcomes of crimes reported in eight South African police areas. Research Paper 18, Project 82 (sentencing)